The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has warned that Samoa faces an increased risk of drought, water shortages, extreme heat and tropical cyclones as El Niño conditions continue across the Pacific.
In an update issued on 11 August 2026, MNRE’s Samoa Meteorology Division said El Niño was now well established across the tropical Pacific Ocean and was expected to persist for the remainder of the year.
Rainfall recorded by Samoa’s national climate monitoring network has decreased, with several locations receiving below-average rainfall in recent months.
The ministry said the emerging dry conditions were consistent with the expected effects of El Niño and indicated that below-normal rainfall could continue in the months ahead.
For the period from August 2026 to January 2027, climate forecasts show a 60 to 70 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall across Samoa.
There is also a 40 to 60 per cent probability of above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures, together with a greater likelihood of prolonged dry periods and drought.
If the conditions continue, Samoa could experience reduced water availability, declining river flows and lower groundwater recharge.
Village and urban water supplies may come under greater pressure, while agricultural production could decline and livestock may face increased stress.
MNRE also warned of a higher risk of dehydration, heat-related illnesses and wildfires. Forests, coral reefs and marine ecosystems may be affected, while lower water levels could reduce hydropower generation as demand for electricity increases.
Despite the expectation of drier weather, Samoa is not free from the threat of severe storms.
The ministry said El Niño can increase the risk of tropical cyclones and Samoa may still be affected during the 2026–2027 Tropical Cyclone Season.
Previous El Niño events in 1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2023–2024 caused drought, water shortages, agricultural losses and increased wildfire activity in Samoa.
MNRE is urging government agencies, villages, businesses and families to begin preparing immediately by conserving water, repairing leaks and storing water where possible.
People are also being advised to avoid unnecessary burning during dry conditions, monitor crops and livestock, protect vulnerable members of the community from extreme heat and review drought and emergency response plans.
The Samoa Meteorology Division will continue monitoring the situation through Samoa’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and will issue further climate outlooks, drought advisories, weather warnings and tropical cyclone advisories when necessary.
The ministry said early preparation remained the most effective way to reduce the effects of El Niño.
This article is based on an official statement issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment on 11 August 2026.
