Samoa is being warned to prepare for reduced rainfall, hotter temperatures and possible drought conditions over the next six months following the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
The Samoa Meteorology Division confirmed the development in a media release issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment on Thursday, 9 July 2026.
The outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent probability of below-normal rainfall across all of Samoa’s islands, potentially placing further pressure on water supplies, agriculture, electricity generation and vulnerable communities.
Minimum and maximum air temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average, with a 40 to 60 percent probability of above-normal temperatures during the June to August period.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
For Samoa, it is commonly associated with reduced rainfall, hotter daytime temperatures and an increased likelihood of prolonged dry conditions.
Although periods of rain are still expected during the dry season, the Meteorology Division said these rainfall events may not be enough to overcome the broader drying effects of El Niño.
Tropical troughs, frontal systems, trade-wind showers and other weather systems may continue to produce occasional rainfall, including heavy rain in some areas. However, total seasonal rainfall is expected to remain below average across much of the country.
Possible effects across Samoa
The Ministry identified several possible impacts over the coming months, including:
- Reduced rainfall and an increased risk of drought
- Hotter-than-normal daytime temperatures
- Pressure on household and community water supplies
- Reduced agricultural production
- Increased risk of heat-related illnesses
- Greater risk of forest and vegetation fires
- Reduced hydropower generation
- Stress on coral reefs, fisheries and other marine ecosystems
- Changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting Samoa
The Ministry stressed that conditions may vary between different parts of the country and that not every district or island will experience the same effects.
Previous El Niño events affected Samoa
Samoa has experienced serious effects during previous El Niño periods.
During the 2023–2024 El Niño, elevated temperatures and below-average rainfall contributed to prolonged dry conditions and increased wildfire risk. Forest fires were reported in areas including Faleolo on Upolu and Papa Sataua on Savai‘i.
The weaker 2009–2010 El Niño also caused below-average rainfall and water shortages in parts of the country, resulting in water rationing in some vulnerable communities.
One of the most severe events occurred in 1997–1998, when Samoa experienced a prolonged drought lasting several months.
That event affected water supplies, agriculture and marine ecosystems. Exceptionally dry conditions were also linked to extensive forest fires around Asau and Aopo on Savai‘i, where some fires reportedly continued burning for weeks.
Communities encouraged to prepare early
The Meteorology Division is encouraging households, villages, government agencies, businesses and farmers to begin taking practical precautions.
These include conserving water, checking household and community water-storage systems, planning agricultural activities around expected dry conditions and monitoring children, older people and vulnerable family members during periods of extreme heat.
People are also being advised to remain cautious when burning rubbish or vegetation because prolonged dry weather may allow fires to spread rapidly.
The Samoa Meteorology Division said it would continue monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions and issue updated climate outlooks and public advisories as the El Niño event develops.
International monitoring also supports the assessment that El Niño conditions are present. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño Advisory and expects the event to strengthen, while Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has reported Pacific Ocean temperatures well above its El Niño threshold.
The public is encouraged to follow official information issued through the Samoa Meteorology Division and Samoa’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning System.
The Ministry’s full El Niño outlook and preparedness advice can be viewed in its official media release.
This article is based on a media release issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s Samoa Meteorology Division on 9 July 2026.
